The O’Connor Sweepstakes.

He will sign with team X. He won’t sign with team X. Team Y has made an offer. He has committed to Team Z. Team X has verbally committed to a hair dye and ice-cream clause, with a guitar-hero incentive. He is still undecided. The O’Connor sweepstakes have taken more twists and turns than Utegate. (Utegate? Really? We couldn’t have come up with our own political cover-up themed moniker?)

But to be fair, it’s worth it. The kid is a prodigy. Fans should be speculating. Marketers should be salivating. Teams should be lining up to acquire his services. In fact, teams should be doing more than lining up. They should be wining and dining him, having hookers and family guy box sets delivered to his hotel room, contracting sponsors to design egotistical signature shoes with his name on them, cutting mock videos of him celebrating championships in their team colours. Nothing should be out of the question. NOTHING!!!

O’Connor’s value cannot be overstated. He represents everything a team is looking for in a franchise guy (I don’t think he will sign long term, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is a marketer’s dream). He is a modern day Candide, both in his play and his persona. He is good looking; he is young (Fans need to grow with players, like they did with the Friends gang or the Brady Bunch kids); he is coherent when he speaks; he is level headed (there was one Gold Coast incident but nothing to be worried about); and most importantly, he is a great player who rises to the occasion (I want to know if his decision making ability and vision translate into other areas of his life. What are his UNO skills like? Is he good at paintball? Does he ruin movies because he works out the plot and ending 20 minutes in? I feel like we don’t know enough.)

Like a schoolgirl, I dribbled about his potential two weeks ago in my Test Season preview writing:

“What is fascinating about O’Connor, beyond his astronomical rugby IQ (it’s Ella-esque), is his control over his body. He gets everything out of It, and then some. His biggest asset is his shoulders. The way he uses them to create separation is unbelievable for someone his age. It’s a skill players usually acquire later in their career when they need to compensate for losing a step. His ability to hit the ball running, dart between tacklers, use his shoulders to free his arms, and offload is second only to Giteau in Australia, and maybe fourth to Carter and Contemponi in the world.”

In the first Italy test he showed his body control when he shedded a front rower with ease to stroll over for his 3rd try, and his positioning and distribution work in the 2nd test proved he has a rugby IQ much higher then most players actual IQ. Apart from his size (otherwise known as “the only thing Adam Ashley-Cooper has over him at the moment”), he is a complete player.

What other profession could you be this complete at 18?

Karmichael Hunt never looked this comfortable on the field at 18. Sonny Bill didn’t even start when the ‘dogs won in 2004. Tennis is too mental for even the physically complete to dominate at a young age. Actors have stage presence but they are usually typecast and don’t have a lot of reach so I wouldn’t call them “complete” (DiCaprio was great in The Basketball Diaries, but he was far from complete). Even porn has a learning curve.

Gymnastics and the Spelling B are the only ones really (Soccer is more early 20’s and even then I wouldn’t say C. Ronaldo is complete. The guy is a head case. A rich head case, but still).

Really, even if you don’t like rugby, you should be impressed by what O’Connor is doing. I’ve seen 28 year old McDonalds employees who aren’t this skilled at their craft. So to deepen our understanding of the situation I thought we should put ourselves in the shoes of the relevant stakeholders:

From the ARU’s Point of View (POV):

They have to lock him up. Whatever he wants, give it too him. At this point a blank checkbook isn’t out of the question. And not only do they have to worry about now, they should be saving for 2011. Right now he is like the 2nd generation iPhone. People who signed 2nd gen contracts should have known the 3rd gen wasn’t far off. They should have been saving to buy out their contracts and upgrade. The ARU need to know he will be asking for top dollar after the 2011 World Cup. I argued in my “Test Season Preview” column that he could be around for FOUR World Cups. That’s unbelievable. The ARU need to keep him happy and clear enough funds to make a run at him in 2011. Giteau will still be relevant then, but he won’t be around in 2015. O’Connor is their future. If there is one sure investment in this economy, it is him. The last thing they need is a Sonny Bill situation.

From the Brumbies POV:

A nice fit, he would go a long way in the forming of a Larkam-Giteau (’02-’05) cover band. They already have Lealiifano so his arrival would hinder his growth, but ultimately the Brumbies would be able to grow a potent attacking outfit. Having him go to work each day with Giteau is like growing weed hydroponically. My only issue is his size. This Brumbies team is built to win now and they can’t afford to chop and change their lineup to hide or rest O’Connor when they face teams with size (i.e. the Hurricanes, Bulls, Sharks, Stormers). I just don’t think they can wait right now for him to develop physically. That money would be better spent on complimentary guys who can give them flexibility off the bench, fill roles, and provide injury and burnout insurance. If he wants to sign and the numbers work they are dumb not too but they can live with out him.

From the Reds POV:

He would be a big piece in their youth movement but they don’t want him, and really, they don’t deserve him (Only this past weekend did the Reds put their name in the hat. Nearly a week AFTER he had the greatest interview in Australian sporting history (the hat-trick on fake-debut). That’s like me strolling over to Ticketek tomorrow and trying to buy tickets to the Melbourne AC/DC concert). The Reds are to Rugby what Hamburg was to the Beatles—a dark irrelevant wasteland where players can hone their skills with little pressure or expectation. O’Connor is way past that. He needs to face quality opposition on a daily basis if he wants to keep improving. Furthermore, he would be too close to where he grew up. The last thing he needs is to deal with all the wants of his “friends” from high school.

The Reds would be fun and his combination with Barnes would be great for the Wallabies, but eventually, like with all drugs (the Reds are like crack cocaine. At least Heroin doesn’t damage your health) they would drag him down and ruin him. Who am I kidding, I wouldn’t sign with the Reds right now. O’Connor’s agent must have laughed when he saw that Queensland area code on his mobile.

From the NRL’s POV:

There is no chance of this happening, but it’s still interesting to look at. His Rugby League roots have been well versed. However, I don’t think he would translate as well as he does in Rugby. I think the work rate in defense would kill him offensively and he wouldn’t have as much of an impact. He has already broken down at times during the Super 14 season, and the League season is three times longer. I think he would get lost in the sea of guys who look and play just like him and ultimately he would lose a lot of money over his career. The NRL don’t need him like rugby does anyway. They have a good farm system and a plethora of young stars already (Is Kevin Locke the Reggie Bush of the NRL?). I feel like he would turn into the next Tim Smith if he went to the NRL. That’s not good for anyone.

From the Force’s POV:

The logical fit. They did what they needed to do (Get a quality 10. Pretorius is a nice role model both-in attitude and style); they have a balanced team (not too young, not too old); Giteau’s contract gives them financial flexibility to sign some good pieces; and they can nurture him through his formative years—he seems comfortable working under Mitchell, a guy who so far he has got the most out of him. Marketing-wise they are set up to position him as the face of their team. Most importantly: he would be living in Western Australia. Does anyone get in trouble there? I feel like there should be two incidents a week. The players are too integrated; the people aren’t used to notoriety; players must get bored because there is nothing to do; they would get angry because they are flying twice as much as every one else. Either they cover up better then the PM or they have a great corporate atmosphere and good character team environment.

From O’connor’s POV:

Let’s see: he is 18, rich, good looking, and he plays for the Wallabies. Does he take the blue pill or the red pill?

For the sake of the Wallabies let’s hope there are no pills. He is the most polarizing sporting figure in the country right now, and no one has written a good feature article about him. This decision will shape him professionally and personally. Who else has to make a decision as heavy as that at 18?

Rugby-wise it makes sense for him to take a cut and play for the Brumbies with the knowledge that he will “get his” when Giteau moves to Europe after his contract expires. Financially it makes sense that he should be in a major market. If there would trades in the Super 14 wouldn’t NSW be insane not to package a deal for him? That’s where he grows his brand equity with the most success. Personal development-wise the Force make the most sense for him; out of the limelight, covered in social bubble wrap, more freedom with his role and time to develop.

So really, I guess it’s a question of gold/blue pill (Do I want to go to the Brumbies, put my body through hell competing at the highest level, and get paid later in my career?), or the purple/ gold pill (Do I want to make money now, play in a low pressure environment with some good character guys, and develop physically for the 2011 World Cup, otherwise known as the “2011 O’Connor Expo”?).

It makes sense for him to re-sign. Like I said, he potentially has another 14 years of Rugby left in him. The way Rugby is growing internationally; I think he ends up in Europe quicker then people think. If he signs with the force, fills out, has a great World Cup showing there will be too much money and opportunity thrown at him from Europe and Japan. I just don’t see how the disorganized and myopic ARU (See: Tahu, Tamana and Sailor, Wendall) is a good place for a guy who greatest selling power lies with the exposure a French or British side gives him.

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I think eventually he moves on and the ARU change their laws on over-seas player selection. It’s inevitable. The All Blacks are already succumbing to this kind of pressure. Carter was going to miss a huge part of the Super 14 season to play in Europe, and NZ Rugby had no choice but to bend over and be fine with that. And in the end they really did get fucked (his injury; hey France, don’t get too excited. You did a good impression of the ’03 English team but Carter would have ripped that backline to pieces.). These guys can make so much more money overseas; anyone with the slightest business sense makes that move.

Just don’t hate him for it.

Brisbane Sports Fan